Forecasts

Democratic Primary

Presidential

Senate

Who Beats Trump

Created By : Jack Kersting

The data created below is calculated from the 538 polling database. The polling average are calculated by combining the national polling and pvi with state polling averages. States with more polling however don't weigh the national vote as much. This is more of a NowCast projection, as if the election was today, compared to the forecast which accounts for the uncertaintity due to the distance from the election. Another difference is the forecast uses other factors besides polling.

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Chances of winning battlegroud states

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