The data created below is calculated from the 538 polling database. The
polling average are calculated by combining the national polling and pvi with state polling averages. States
with more polling however don't weigh the national vote as much. This is more of a NowCast projection, as if the
election was today, compared to the forecast which accounts for the uncertaintity due to the distance from the
election. Another difference is the forecast uses other factors besides polling.